Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 13.972930 15.958192 18.089842 20.544676 23.289299 26.258970 29.710803
2025-08-10 11.038097 13.739571 16.859495 20.711819 25.322067 30.642736 37.227398
2025-08-17 9.513223 12.517432 16.152390 20.842081 26.696370 33.724694 42.758215
2025-08-24 8.264686 11.438323 15.443438 20.817635 27.781654 36.436196 47.931330
2025-08-31 7.247815 10.490581 14.737608 20.635049 28.527730 38.631016 52.430250
2025-09-07 6.526437 9.840140 14.328464 20.755837 29.608661 41.241465 57.523984
2025-09-14 6.077425 9.506129 14.292145 21.335886 31.286829 44.665730 63.796186
2025-09-21 5.453954 8.851016 13.737404 21.126346 31.828551 46.543414 68.025077
2025-09-28 4.721800 7.957061 12.755116 20.211826 31.285844 46.855788 70.058089
2025-10-05 4.477169 7.784557 12.815017 20.810564 32.929664 50.280427 76.569305
2025-10-12 4.215062 7.556539 12.765396 21.226597 34.306046 53.359523 82.689084
2025-10-19 3.860240 7.142476 12.389960 21.105510 34.849866 55.226340 87.096561
2025-10-26 3.500073 6.693039 11.933616 20.839790 35.175675 56.813489 91.209931
2025-11-02 3.229005 6.371967 11.660774 20.845878 35.918171 59.051749 96.385252
2025-11-09 3.019765 6.138774 11.511894 21.034572 36.943292 61.742455 102.325264
2025-11-16 2.790419 5.846491 11.237740 20.989604 37.576214 63.835274 107.405989
2025-11-23 2.562534 5.534330 10.902881 20.812789 37.970099 65.549761 111.937423
2025-11-30 2.400429 5.332652 10.747599 20.931979 38.854088 68.067147 117.813597
2025-12-07 2.317023 5.278304 10.854672 21.517276 40.551416 71.957575 126.018922
2025-12-14 2.133777 5.004279 10.532701 21.305845 40.854363 73.559891 130.551644
2025-12-21 1.879962 4.558018 9.849543 20.384553 39.856209 72.943944 131.396226
2025-12-28 1.826466 4.533661 9.980101 20.987762 41.596129 76.996300 140.129712
2026-01-04 1.755187 4.463620 10.014442 21.406934 43.016981 80.548060 148.128394